报告地点：行健楼学术活动室526
报告摘要：
In this work, I will introduce a SIHR infectious disease mode for which the hospitalized rate is expressed as a nonlinear function related to the number of empty beds to describe the effect of the number of hospital beds on the spread of infectious diseases. We proved that the model undergoes backward bifurcation, Hopf bifurcation and Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation of codimension 2 by the center manifold and normal form methods. Our results show that there is a threshold for the number of hospital beds in a region. If the number of beds is lower than this threshold, the backward bifurcation will occur, which means that controlling the basic reproduction number to a level less than 1 is not sufficient to ensure that the disease does not break out. Increasing the number of hospital beds can help people ensure the ultimate extinction of the disease when the basic reproduction number is less than 1. It can also effectively reduce the number of infections and help control the spread of the disease. The estimation method of thresholds can also help people rationally allocate the number of hospital beds in a region.
